The flying demonstration is just someone flying around for a few minutes. They're pretty skilled at it, and pull of some neat tricks like juggling balls in the air, but the spell only lasts a few minutes and then it's over.

Ah. Right. Humans who haven't spent hours floating around the room when their mother felt like indulging them. Self-directed flying is useful, but it's so short.

Nobles are in fact very impressive, always good to remember in the middle of the Festival. Back to waiting for the polymorph demonstration, then.

The polymorph demonstration is more interesting. They've brought the greater hat of disguise inside, and it begins with someone demonstrating many different humanoid forms. Dwarves, elves, merfolk, a strange race that appears like a wingless humanoid crow... it goes on for a little while.

After that's done, a different wizard takes the stage. He casts a spell and transforms into a winged stone gargoyle, which can actually fly! After a few minutes of that, he turns into a seven-foot tall hooded skeleton. Very spooky.

The number of things a single transmutation can do is remarkably impressive. Whatever Professor Vargas was doing in the vision to become himself but made of ice is probably beyond these students, but it does demonstrate the incredible breadth of turning yourself into something else. 

It's also a little strange that turning into a skeleton is apparently not necromancy? Oh well, she doesn't really understand why the lines are drawn where they are anyway.

And then it's over, because spells have limited durations. There's not much else going on at the Hall of Shaping.

That is the other limit. Back towards the Hall of Wards, then, she doesn't want to miss the Breaching and she will no doubt get distracted on the way.

After a few distractions, Tencednil reaches the crowd surrounding the Hall of Wards a little earlier than last time. The crowd is not quite as big yet. The raised platform for the wizards and nobles is still filling up. The royal house is having a procession up to their private box.

The Hall of Wards itself is a plain, rectangular wooden building with minimal decoration. Large windows face the crowd, and through them one can see a large empty room with a glittering wood floor. There is one set of double doors at the front. Nothing on the building looks like an illusion, although of course this is a lie.

This is where she's taking the most risk based on the vision. If it was false, she just wasted two thousand silver shields, for no value. Of course, that also makes it a good test. If the goal was to make her believe in a false murder of the King, it probably didn't come from a source willing to lose tens of thousands of gold sails to get at her. After this, she will either be confident enough to go ahead with her plans and well-resourced to do it, or she will know it for a lie before any consequences have truly struck.

Time to see how it plays out.

About half an hour later, a long blast from a mighty horn sounds over the crowd, and a man appears in the sky.

The Headmaster gives his speech, exactly how she remembers it. The crowd cheers in all the right places.

The master thief is first. Madison Ross and her deck of cards dance through the first three sets of doors without issue. The rain of arrows from the Doors of Steel impale her, and it takes her a minute to get them open. She dodges the bolt of lightning from the Doors of Storm and cracks the lock in an instant.

The Doors of Night are a brilliant moving night sky. The stars glow, and the constellations form a vast symbol. It flashes twice. Madison dies.

That's a good sign! Not the most surprising, but the vision did show the two flashes before she died, and that might be hard to guess?

(She is less emotionally affected than last time. She was expecting this death, there's no point getting worked up about it.)

Takota is up next, his giant's sledge slung over his shoulder. He drinks a potion and doubles in size.

Swing. Swing. Swing. Swing. Swing...

His hammer pulverizes the walls of the Hall of Wards like they're made of cheap wood. He breaks the wall of force. He carves through the wall of lava. He bypasses the web of lightning. He kills the black ooze. He shatters the dead-magic wall. He survives the sky wall with the clouds of fire. He shatters each layer of the prismatic wall, one-by-one.

The air elementals attack him and die. Takota fails the break through an invisible barrier in front of a wall of liquid metal. He walks away.

Good. Twice successful, which means even in the worst case she has twelve thousand gold sails tucked away. If the vision was malicious, that's easily a worthwhile profit even so. If it wasn't... if it wasn't, she will need everything she can get.

Professor Vargas, with his purple suit and monocle, is the next (and probably last) candidate. He spends a minute inspecting the hole Takota made in the wall.

He knocks open the Doors of Wood. He casts three spells on himself. His body is formed of glimmering ice. He phases through the next Doors of Stone and of Iron in an instant.

The rain of arrows from the Doors of Steel fails against an invisible barrier. He disintegrates one of the doors using his staff. The Doors of Storm cannot harm him. They reflect his next disintegrate back at him (he blinks away just in time). He opens one of the doors using an unknown spell.

The Doors of Night flash harmlessly at his construct servant. It says a command word, and one of the doors opens. The Doors of Flame, formed of smoking vines, dispel his icy form. It doesn't stop him. He scrolls a spell and flows through the vines.

He becomes ice again, just in time for the Doors of Shadow to pour forth undead horrors. They cannot harm him. He casts an unknown spell, and one of the doors opens. The Doors of Scouring are a dazzling white. He reads a scroll, which destroys all magic, but the white doors are unaffected. He walks away.

Unsurprisingly, she still can't figure out what he's using to get through the famously Knock-proof doors, but it's definitely effective. Too bad about the scroll, it seems a waste. (Maybe she was supposed to prevent him from using it here, so he had it later? ...No, it's obvious that it was a real scroll, it just failed at the important task. If it was just the Doors she could have tried to tracelessly replace it with something without such a grand effect, but she wouldn't have succeeded and it would have been obvious if she had.)

That's everything. She isn't sure whether she's relieved or disappointed that the rest of what she saw seemingly wasn't a lie, but with that she should assume it wasn't. 

After the announcement that the others won't be competing, she walks back to her house rapidly. She needs to get going as soon as possible.

She makes it back home easily. It's now late evening.

She starts writing—

—wait. The bank is closed today. Not so urgent, then.

No reason not to have everything ready, though. This won't take long.

For the eyes of the Saffron Sovereign, King Eodred Arabasti II of Korvosa, Prince of Stirges.

You are in danger. In the current course of events, you will be dead within the week, slain by the wyrm Glarataxus. I would see you warned.

If you wish evidence of my knowledge, the Bank of Abadar can attest that I have successfully predicted the outcome of the Breaching Festival, to odds they called 1 in 2500. If this is insufficient for you to reconsider, your death will fall only upon your own head.

Be safe.

She seals that alongside the necessary codewords to authorize it as coming from the anonymous account, covers it in a thick blank envelope, then gets to sleep. She'll pay someone to run it to the bank in the morning.

KORVOSAN CARRIER
MOONDAY, SARENITH 1st, 4708

BUSINESS BOOMS AT MIDLAND, ABADARAN ESTIMATES EXCEEDED

The storm has subsided and the sky is clear. At the Acadamae, post-holiday cleanup begins. Everyone gets back to work. A crew sets out from the docks, intent on investigating yesterday's wreck. Rumors spread in Old Korvosa of undead escaping the sewers, but nothing can be confirmed. A small group is found dead, mauled and eaten by some sort of monster.

After a short holiday hiatus, the Bank of Abadar is once again open for businesses.

This time she's not talking to the actual bankers, so she will disguise herself. When she makes her way across the bridge today, Tencednil is covered in a paste which recolors her skin to a pale tannish shade, more typical of the humans around here. Her ears are covered with putty to look smooth, and she wears a green robe without any symbols on it. She didn't expect to look believable as an undisguised human — she's never really used the paste before, and ears really aren't made to carry this much weight — but it comes out remarkably well. She's definitely not going to be anyone in particular, but the point here was to spread rubble over the link between the mystery diviner and the city's drow, and this seems to succeed at that. 

Once she's over the river, she finds someone who looks reasonably trustworthy and seems mostly at loose ends. "Sealed letter for the Bank, and a couple pinch to carry it. They'll know if it was opened, so don't, you know how this goes."

He looks uncertain for a moment, before nodding. "I'll do it. Thank you." He takes the letter and heads in the Bank's direction.

Once he's on his way, she steps out into an alley to take off this set of robes, revealing a blue robe underneath, then she makes her own way over. Does he seem to be following through?

He enters the Bank holding the letter and exits without it.

As it should be.

If there was anything she was supposed to do to act on that vision, if there was any actual way for a first circle sorcerer to prevent the killing of the King of Korvosa, she should now have done it. And, as a proper gifted of Ulon should, she has made an incredible amount of money in the process. Only time will tell whether that was in fact enough, but if the king being forewarned doesn't do it she doesn't know what more she could do on her own. (Even on her own and rich.)

She returns home, Prestidigitates the robes and her skin clean, and eventually leaves for the day at her normal time, exactly where Mother expects her to be. The best amount of light for her to shine is none to anyone.