(He is curious about the mastermind at the Valdemaran court; the internal politics of Valdemar are famously indecipherable, with most of the official posts of government figureheads puppeted by Heralds, that mysterious clique of Thoughtsensers that truly controls the court. But he's heard stories of Vanyel Ashkevron, archmage and warlord, and he knows that war is rarely so clean as ballads make it out to be. Vanyel Ashkevron, 'Hero of Stony Tor', on whose instruction (so the rumors say) Valdemar has begun new policies of education, construction, and expansion - and who personally delivered it, if his spies' rumors are to be believed, both Lineas and Baires. Considerable talent with compulsions, for a non-Easterner.)

Some time later: Word reaches Janos! It's a rather confused word. The king is dead (the king's daughter is dead) (Vanyel is dead) (someone else with the same name is dead) thanks to an attack by (horrible monsters) (demons) (assassins) (fish). They are mustering their armies for war.

All right, let's leave 'a fish ate their chief wizard' aside and consider the serious possibilities. Perhaps the blood mage they so fear managed something with demonology, more likely 'the blood mage' did. (Is Vanyel making his move to make himself king direct? Are Vanyel's rivals among the Heralds arranging for an 'accident' to befall their shadow-dictator? Is it some sort of false flag attack with high-status and politically irrelevant casualties, to fire up the people's anger for a war?) He'll want to wait for more reports to arrive - there are limits on how far he can throw a scry - but he is letting it be known he's paying for information.

He really doesn't expect them to get moving until spring; wars are usually not fought in winter, unless you go quite far south. But he does want to ensure that no disaster befalls the province he is governing, especially nothing that he could have used to cheaply expand his territory and win favor in the eyes of the emperor who should die in a fire is making understandable and reasonable tradeoffs.

Nope, they're mobilizing for war in the middle of winter! Heading straight north, too!

Okay, that's weird. He is going to SERIOUSLY CONSIDER the possibility that they are just marching north for the sake of display, then planning to march east and launch a surprise attack on Hardorn. Admittedly they haven't exactly been going around saying that they plan to invade Hardorn, and have indeed been explaining to King Festil that they have no plans at all to do that even in the slightest, but that is not exactly... likely. Maybe the plan is to Gate elite units east while the main army of Iftel heads south?

Any more news on just what exactly the attack was?

It was definitely some sort of attack! The king is probably not dead. His older daughter is not dead, either, but the way Karse is freaking out, it looks like the younger might be. Vanyel hasn't been seen since. Karse has signed its full support to the march north, and he hasn't heard anything about unrest among the anti-Valdemaran factions - not that he necessarily would have, his focus is on Hardorn where it isn't on his home.

(This isn't the only thing going on, to be clear; one of the most powerful dukes of Hardornen is dying of an incurable illness, the governor of Thaus suspects that Janos's attempts to coordinate border defense with him are some kind of trick to wreck his provincial economy and/or prevent him from collecting the cash he needs, and one of his own provincial nobles has professed a faith in the Earth-Mother and will need to be quietly retired without a fight. Being a provincial governor is work.)

The duke can be asked if he wants an Imperial healer, the favor Janos'll get out of it if it works is worth it. The provincial nobleman's chief mage is terrible at defending his own mind, and the nobleman is going to be so seized with religious fervor he surrenders all his titles to his heir and retires to a life of contemplation. The governor of Thaus is an idiot, but a situationally useful idiot; the southern pass is less useful for invasions anyway, and if it falls that will make Janos's ability to hold out look more impressive; Janos will threaten to send to their superiors a report on the failures on the Thaus-Hardorn border, and he can either fix them and Janos will serve the empire by bolstering its defenses or Janos will get the credit for noticing that he failed to fix them in advance and so serve the empire less directly by bolstering the quality of its administration.

Now. Is Valdemar invading Hardorn?

Nnnnope. Still not doing that.

... Is this whole thing actually a plot to get one of Rethwellan's armies with their guard down, so Vanyel can compulsion all their officers and use them annex Rethwellan the way he annexed Lineas and Baires? Maybe he means to do that to Iftel? This theory would make a lot more sense if Vanyel hadn't completely vanished.

"What, still?"

"The Valdemaran coalition is the largest military force west of the Empire, Seiran. Of course I'm watching what they do, it's not as though Corvas or Bastel will do it!"

"No doubt. There was another assassination attempt, you know."

"On the Emperor or just on me?"

"Oh, just you."

"Then I have no doubt you'll continue dealing with it with the inesteemable skill you have heretofore shown."

Now. How's the mess in Valdemar looking?

Rumors of the king's death circulate. Sometimes they are followed by rumors of him doing something. More commonly not.

Oh hey THAT's a thing.

... What is a thing. What thing. WHERE!

Nobody knows!

Wait, no, this guy knows! Vanyel and the evil bandit-mage fought to the death and they both died.

No, no, the evil bandit-mage did a Final Strike in Haven!

The army got attacked by overwhelming odds and routed halfway to Karse!

MAGICAL WOLVES ate the bandit. MAGICAL WOLVES.

Herald Vanyel is dead.

Nope, he was alive the whole time.

King Randi's definitely dead, though.

FACTS. I need FACTS.

I can have TOO MANY FACTS, I am fine with TOO MANY FACTS, just give me FACTS.

Uh.

There was a very large explosion in Haven. That definitely happened.

The army is still stuck in the freezing north with no supplies they don't gate in, merchants are sure of that. King Randale's definitely dead; his daughter and son-in-law are running things.

Everything else is rumor. Like the rumor that they picked a powerful wizard out of the smoking remnants of their capital? Or that someone Final Struck, or multiple people Final Struck? Iftel supposedly sent an army of gryphons to help them win the war? There might have been a big battle up north, nobody's quite sure.

Gryphons are probably not a myth, but he'd know if Iftel had an army of them, it's his northern neighbor.

So, what does he know. Rethwellan sent troops north. Karse sent troops north. Iftel sent troops west. Then something happened up north and there was a moment of complete confusion, from which scattered reports have started to reach us.

... What is the fewest number of unknown facts that can explain this?

Suppose there was a mage. Someone not aligned with Vanyel. Maybe Vanyel was planning to invade Hardorn, maybe he was going north for some reason, but it only headed north when he vanished.

... This mage preemptively attacks, summons demons from a distance, then withdraws north, the armies moving after him. Takes Vanyel out. Why Vanyel?

Because Vanyel was the archmage. Vanyel took Lineas and Baires and every story of the Karsite war says he's an extremely potent wizard. Vanyel goes down, the king stops taking actions and the king's heirs take over - and maybe they don't know the story or maybe they do - and their army goes north, chasing rumors of a terrifyingly powerful force (a host of demons like the ones he used in the assassination, maybe? Demons don't really need to eat, and a single technique to let them stick around for longer could explain it, and then he needs to buy time...)

And they go up north looking for a fight, and what happens?

Why, the obvious thing happens, when a state formerly ruled by a compulsion-wielding archmage becomes headless: A different compulsion-wielding archmage takes over. There's a night of confusion (a night of killing off anyone who can't resist) and then Velgarth has a new ruler. All this confusion simplified down to a fight between two archmages, and everything neatly explained with basic imperial compulsion techniques.

How does he test this theory?

Sudden shifts of policy. Alliances breaking. Non-compulsioned representatives of Valdemar outside the state rejecting it, that's one the wizard will have trouble disguising. If he's dictating policy, now, what exactly does he do? Janos would disguise it as much as he could.

This mage is good. Maybe better than Janos, if he made his way into power.

If, of course, he exists.

Don't get ahead of yourself, Janos.

One of the things about areas outside the Eastern Empire is that they don't use Gates for logistics, very much. News travels at the speed of a caravan or (along deep enough rivers) a merchant ship; news is only very rarely valuable enough to pay for a galloping messenger, let alone a portal-wielding archmage.

Therefore the first major news that reaches him is that the dying duke has made a full recovery. The most popular story is that a priest of Vkandis Sunlord burst into his chamber and demanded that he swear fealty to the Sunlord, and when the duke did he was instantly healed by the mighty power of the god. He is almost certainly up and about a lot, most of the sources confirm it, and most of them also say he has a new priestly advisor.

Other rumors:

- He burned his last priest as an offering to Vkandis Sunlord.

- Nope, that was the healer the Eastern Empire sent.

- No, that was his archivist.

- No, it was just some pornographic books.

- You people are being idiots, he just had his mistress hanged for stealing his wife's jewels while he was sick.

- He's in the market for some new jewels!

- He declared a crusade against Valdemar.

- The Eastern Empire!

- King Festil!

- No, it was a crusade against immortality, he meant a spiritual crusade.

- He's buying up lots and lots of wine. (So says a merchant who is either purchasing quantities for transport, or trying to give the impression he is so his rivals waste all their money bidding it up.)

It'll take a bit for news from Valdemar to arrive, even if that news is, say, about events taking place chronologically before this.

All right, time to break out his scrying focus.

(One scrying later...)

... The duke is up and about. That is a priest of (Janos rummages through his book with symbols of local gods) Vkandis Sunlord. He does seem to be organizing some kind of very major project.

Huh. Janos was not in fact aware that gods could do that.